World no. 3 player Coco Gauff will take the court against her compatriot Madison Keys on April 29. Keys currently is at 20th in the WTA rankings and is expected to break into the top 15 soon. Set to play in the Round of 16 of the Madrid Open 2024, the winner of the all-American clash will face Ons Jabeur in the quarterfinals. Coco Gauff and Madison Keys will meet for the 5th time in their careers, with an incredible head-to-head record.
Both Keys and Gauff have won 2 matches against each other so far. At the 2022 Adelaide International, where they first met, Keys beat Gauff 3-6, 6-2, 7-5. A few months later when they met at the US Open, Gauff successfully evened things out. She beat Keys 6-3, 6-2 in the Round of 32 match.
At the 2023 Dubai Tennis International quarterfinals, Gauff won again by 6-2, 7-5. But at the Eastbourne International later that year, Keys won 6-3, 6-3. There has been nothing to choose between the two players.
Since both these players are looking for title glory on clay, it is worthwhile to compare their stats on the surface. Coco Gauff, in her short career, has a 71% win percentage on the surface so far. It has been the most successful for her, more than hard (69%) and grass (67%). One of the first clay-court tournaments Gauff won was the 2021 Emilia-Romagna Open in Italy. In its first edition, Coco Gauff beat Katerina Siniakova 7-5, 1-6, 6-2 in the finals.
Although she didn’t win any more WTA titles on clay, out of her 7 wins, Gauff did reach the finals of the French Open 2022, where she lost to Iga Swiatek 1-6, 3-6 in the final.
On the other hand, Madison Keys has a much lower win percentage on clay, i.e. 61%. It is higher than her numbers on hard courts (60%) and much lower than on grass (76%). Interestingly, Keys has also won 7 WTA titles in her career so far and out of those, only 1 has come on clay. That was the 2019 Charleston Open. Her other best results on the surface are when she reached the finals of the 2015 Charleston Open and the 2016 Italian Open respectively.
Aged 29, Madison Keys is 9 years older than the young and brimming Coco Gauff. But they are both giving it their all in the current Madrid Open tournament. Gauff opened with a thunderous 6-0, 6-0 win over Arantxa Rus in the first round and then a 6-4, 6-1 win over Dayana Yastremska in the next. The young American had an impressive 77% first-serve win percentage in the first round match.
Against Yastremska, Gauff improved in that aspect to 82% and that was 34% percentage higher than her opponent’s. With her highest serve speed reaching up to 128 mph, Gauff was extremely lethal against both her opponents.
Madison Keys, on the contrary, had a very close first-round win against Irina-Camelia Begu. She won 7-6 (7-3), 7-6 (8-6), with 3 aces and a 67% first-serve win percentage, which was barely ahead of Begu’s 64%. In her next match against Liudmila Samsonova, Keys won 6-2, 6-3. She had a 78% first-serve win percentage with no double faults and 7 aces, which was a much better showing from the veteran American.
After her win against Samsonova, and setting up a clash against Coco Gauff, this is what Madison Keys had to say about the 20-year-old American star.
“I mean obviously, she’s had an incredible year, she’s had an incredible, honestly, career at this point. She’s playing some really good tennis and I think that she is very, very good on clay. I think it really highlights how well she moves, so that’ll be a really tough match-up, and I guess we’ll just have to wait and see if it actually happens,” said Keys to Prakash Amritraj of Tennis Channel about Coco Gauff.
Madison Keys did acknowledge at first that she and Gauff never played each other on clay before. Therefore, this might be a unique, one-of-a-kind contest.
Coco Gauff vs Madison Keys – Who Stands a Better Chance of Winning?
With all the stats, previous records, and match-ups considered, Coco Gauff is truly the favorite to win the contest. She is ahead in the rankings and has a better record on clay. The match will stream live on the Tennis Channel and Sky Sports in the US and the UK respectively. It will not start before 10 AM ET, which is 2 PM GMT. The weather in Madrid is mildly chilly at around 19 degrees Celsius, with 8 km/h wind speed, and 59% humidity.
The winner of the Coco Gauff vs Madison Keys match will be in the quarterfinals and is guaranteed to receive $186,294 at least. The loser of this match will take home $101,752. Nevertheless, the match is expected to be a thriller and could define which American is likely to have a better season on clay going ahead.
